Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Realized · held to resolution+2%$100 paper stake
Polymarket16¢ → 14¢
Our position · NO84¢ → 100¢
Signal endedSep 5
Forecast updatedAug 8
Jul 13 forecast
Strait of Hormuz traffic almost certainly stays below normal through August 31, because demining alone needs roughly 40 days of the 49 remaining.
Physical mine clearance timelines and active conflict leave insufficient days in the window to achieve the required 7-day traffic average.
Points to NO
- Intertanko reported 80 mines blocking central Hormuz routeClearance operations face severe engineering constraints.
- US Central Command struck 140 Iranian targets, July 11-12Active warzone conditions block the deployment of vulnerable minesweepers.
Points to YES
- Indirect US-Iran negotiations continue via OmanDiplomatic channels operate concurrently with kinetic exchanges.
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