Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,750 on Sep 7?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+32%$100 paper stake

Kalshi76¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES76¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 7

Forecast updated

Sep 7 forecast

Bitcoin is already above $78,750 with only hours remaining, so a September 7 settlement at or above that threshold is likely.

Bitcoin is currently about $79,584, leaving a cushion of roughly $834 over $78,750 with only hours to settle. Several September 7 readings clustered near $80,000, supporting an above-threshold finish. The cushion is thin relative to recent volatility: Bitcoin touched $78,649 the same day and recently fell from about $81,300 to $78,600 after the jobs report. An above-$78,750 settlement is therefore likely, but meaningful uncertainty remains because another routine intraday downswing could erase the buffer.

Points to YES

Bitcoin is trading modestly above the $78,750 threshold close to settlement.
The Nasdaq Bitcoin Reference Price Index stood at $79,637.02 at 04:47 BST on September 7, 2026.
Recent trading has repeatedly stabilized near $80,000 and above the threshold.
Bitcoin’s September 6 daily candle recorded a $79,600 low and a $79,910 last price.

Points to NO

Bitcoin has already crossed below the threshold during September 7 trading.
Bitcoin fell to $78,649 on September 7, 2026.
Short-term technical momentum is bearish, increasing the risk of another late decline.
Bitcoin’s momentum oscillator and MACD were rated bearish on September 6 after its September 3 high.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.