Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 82.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 28, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+67%$100 paper stake

Kalshi60¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES60¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 28

Forecast updated

October WTI is trading above the cutoff after settling higher Thursday, so an above-$82.49 settlement today is likely.

October WTI entered the day above the required level after Thursday’s strong settlement and remained above it in the latest trading. That cushion is modest rather than comfortable: prices have recently crossed the cutoff in both directions, and improving Hormuz supply prospects could trigger another decline. Continued shipping constraints and stalled diplomacy nevertheless support enough of a risk premium to make an above-threshold settlement likely.

Points to YES

October WTI remained above the cutoff Friday morning, giving it a direct but limited cushion that raises the chance of finishing above the required level.
On August 28 at 09:43 GMT, October WTI traded at $83.21, down $0.32 for the day.
Thursday’s strong rebound established positive carry into the final session, making an above-threshold settlement easier to sustain despite Friday’s early decline.
On August 27, October WTI settled at $83.53 per barrel, up $1.30 or 1.58%.
Persistent security threats around Hormuz preserve an oil-price risk premium and make a sharp pre-settlement decline less likely.
On August 27, a British maritime authority reported that a tanker fire was extinguished after the vessel was hit by an unidentified projectile in Hormuz.

Points to NO

The cushion is fragile because WTI recently settled below the cutoff, showing that ordinary daily movement can still produce a below-threshold finish.
On August 26, NYMEX October WTI settled at $82.23 per barrel, down $0.13 or 0.16%.
Improving Hormuz supply prospects reduce the disruption premium and could pull crude below the cutoff if traders gain confidence that more barrels will move safely.
On August 27, Kuwait and Qatar were reported to have restored crude shipments through Hormuz to around 70% of pre-war levels using shuttle operations and ship-to-ship transfers.

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