Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket52¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES52¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 4

Forecast updated

Aug 25 forecast

JMA projects Saudel from southeast to northwest of Okinoerabu while it remains a typhoon, so Japanese landfall by the deadline is favored.

Saudel is passing through a chain of Japanese islands, and JMA’s near-term forecast places its center on opposite sides of Okinoerabu within hours. That creates a credible path for a coastline crossing while the storm remains eligible. Landfall is favored, but the islands are small relative to the track uncertainty, and an offshore passage would leave few later opportunities before Saudel heads toward China.

Points to YES

JMA’s near-term path carries Saudel from southeast to northwest of Okinoerabu, making a crossing between advisory positions plausible and raising the chance of Japanese landfall.
On August 25, JMA forecast Saudel about 50 kilometers east-southeast of Okinoerabu that evening and about 160 kilometers west-northwest of the island the following morning.
Saudel remains a strong tropical cyclone during the island passage, making any imminent center crossing eligible under the resolution rules.
At 4 p.m. JST on August 25, Saudel remained a strong typhoon with sustained winds of 40 meters per second.

Points to NO

The forecast sends Saudel west into the East China Sea and then southern China, so missing the Ryukyu islands would sharply reduce its remaining Japanese landfall opportunities.
JMA’s August 25 forecast placed Saudel over the East China Sea on August 27 and 28 and over southern China on August 29.
The latest reported center remained offshore, so the evidence had not yet established that the circulation center crossed a Japanese coastline.
At 4 p.m. JST on August 25, Saudel was east-southeast of Okinoerabu Island and moving west-northwest.
The narrow islands make the outcome highly sensitive to modest track changes, leaving a credible route through nearby waters without landfall.
An August 24 forecast expected Saudel to pass just north of Okinawa and said small track changes could substantially alter impacts.

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