Will Luke Herdegen win the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election?
Realized · held to resolution+138%$100 paper stake
Polymarket42¢ → 100¢
Our position · YES42¢ → 100¢
Signal endedAug 30
Forecast updatedAug 29
Aug 28 forecast
Late reporting says Labor is bracing to lose its former stronghold, so Luke Herdegen is narrowly favored to win the Secret Harbour by-election.
Multiple late reports indicate that Herdegen has moved ahead as cost-of-living pressure and weakened major-party loyalty reshape a formerly safe Labor electorate. Heavy early voting may have already locked in much of that movement. Labor's deep local history, substantial previous margin and stronger preference path could still produce a comeback, leaving Herdegen narrowly favored rather than clearly ahead.
Points to YES
- Late campaign assessments increasingly put Herdegen ahead, indicating that One Nation's surge may be broad enough to overcome Labor's inherited margin.On 28 August, the Australian Financial Review reported that the Cook Labor government was bracing to lose Secret Harbour to Luke Herdegen.
- Early-voter sentiment strongly favoured One Nation, suggesting Herdegen may have banked a substantial lead before polling day despite the sample's limitations.A report published on 27 August said a straw poll of 120 first-day early voters recorded 50% for One Nation, 27.5% for Labor and 12% for Liberal.
- Discontent over household pressures and both major parties creates a plausible route for Herdegen to attract former Labor and Liberal voters simultaneously.On 26 August, ABC reported local concerns about housing, cost of living and population growth, alongside voters describing weakened or abandoned loyalty to Labor and Liberal.
Points to NO
- Labor begins with a formidable electoral cushion and long-standing local strength, making a complete One Nation breakthrough difficult even amid a large swing.On 28 August, ABC classified Secret Harbour as a very safe Labor seat with an 11.5% pre-election margin.
- Preference flows offer Labor a credible comeback path if Herdegen's first-preference lead is modest, particularly through strong Greens support and imperfect conservative transfers.On 12 August, analyst Malcolm Mackerras argued that Labor should retain the seat because Greens preferences strongly favoured Labor and Liberal–One Nation preference exchange was unlikely to be tight enough.
- The absence of a constituency-wide poll leaves the apparent Herdegen lead unusually uncertain and increases the chance that selective campaign reports overstate One Nation's support.A 27 August analysis reported that no constituency-wide Secret Harbour poll had emerged three days before polling day.
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