Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+56%$100 paper stake

Polymarket36¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO64¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 1

Forecast updated

Jul 15 forecast

A GPT-6 launch by August 31 is highly improbable so soon after the July rollout of GPT-5.6.

DevDay scheduling and recent July iterative updates powerfully incentivize delaying a generational leap. August leaks likely represent an ambitious target that will slip, or a planned 5.x point-release.

Points to NO

DevDay scheduled September 2026
OpenAI DevDay 2026 scheduled for September 29, 2026
Recent GPT-5.6 rollout
OpenAI began rolling out GPT-5.6 Sol, July 9 2026

Points to YES

Lumina leak targets August
Lumina leak: new 10T parameter model targets August 2026 release

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