Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?
Realized · 7-day hold+2%$100 paper stake
Polymarket36¢ → 35¢
Our position · NO64¢ → 65¢
Signal endedJul 22
Forecast updatedAug 7
Jul 15 forecast
A GPT-6 launch by August 31 is highly improbable so soon after the July rollout of GPT-5.6.
DevDay scheduling and recent July iterative updates powerfully incentivize delaying a generational leap. August leaks likely represent an ambitious target that will slip, or a planned 5.x point-release.
Points to NO
- DevDay scheduled September 2026OpenAI DevDay 2026 scheduled for September 29, 2026
- Recent GPT-5.6 rolloutOpenAI began rolling out GPT-5.6 Sol, July 9 2026
Points to YES
- Lumina leak targets AugustLumina leak: new 10T parameter model targets August 2026 release
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