Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?

Realized · 7-day hold−89%$100 paper stake

Polymarket42¢ → 5¢

Our position · YES42¢ → 5¢

Signal endedJul 31

Forecast updatedJul 26

Jul 24 forecast

IMF Portwatch will likely report fewer than 50 Hormuz transits for July 20-26 because conflict-driven suppression has collapsed daily crossings to a trickle.

Shipping through Hormuz has collapsed under sustained US-Iran hostilities. IMF and maritime trackers show daily crossings in the low single digits to low teens through late July, with reports of just three ships on July 21. With only two days left in the window and no sign of de-escalation, a rebound to an average of seven or more per day is implausible. The IMF sum for July 20-26 should therefore fall below 50. The main risk to this view is a data revision or late capture of dark transits that raises the published total, but no such correction has been signaled.

Points to YES

IMF Portwatch and maritime trackers show daily Hormuz crossings collapsed to about 10 for July 13-19 and to just three on July 21, with tanker transits falling sharply.
Evidence
The conflict is intensifying: Iran suspended its MoU, US strikes continue nightly, and attacks on commercial vessels persist, deterring owners.
Evidence

Points to NO

Oman introduced a temporary phased traffic-management plan that could allow limited, organized safe passages through the strait.
Evidence
Dark voyages and reporting lags mean IMF may later capture vessels not initially reported, or issue upward revisions before full publication.
Evidence

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