Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 95.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 9, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi74¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO26¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 9

Forecast updated

Sep 9 forecast

October WTI remains below $95.99 with only hours until settlement, so a settlement above the threshold is less likely than not.

October WTI stands at $95.0061, about 1% below the required $95.99, with little time remaining. Earlier September 9 trading and the previous settlement were further below the threshold, making an above-threshold settlement the less likely outcome. However, Brent above $100, reported physical-market tightness, and substantial two-way volatility leave a real path for a late rally.

Points to NO

October WTI still needs a late gain of roughly 1% to exceed the settlement threshold.
On September 9, October WTI stood at $95.0061 with about 3.3 hours remaining before settlement.
The latest completed settlement left October WTI well below the required level.
October WTI settled at $93.03 on September 8, up $1.55 for the day but still $2.96 below the threshold.
Early September 9 trading remained entirely below $95.99 despite an advancing oil market.
As of 4:16 a.m. EDT on September 9, October WTI traded near $94.22 after ranging from $93.76 to $94.85.

Points to YES

Brent's move above $100 shows enough broad oil-market strength to support a late WTI rally.
Brent futures reached a September 9 session high of $100.19.
Reported physical tightness and diesel scarcity create upside pressure across crude markets.
On September 9, Argus Chief Economist David Fyfe described physical oil markets as incredibly tight and said diesel pricing indicated a shortage.

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