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Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution100%$100 paper stake
Polymarket81¢
Our position · YES81¢
Signal endedSep 4
Forecast updatedSep 2
Sep 2 forecast

Fresh reporting puts OpenAI on the cusp of launch despite stronger delay evidence, so Astra’s September 3 public release is likely with meaningful uncertainty.

The visible evidence leans against a September 3 release: OpenAI said the timeline slipped by weeks, had not announced a date, and was still red-teaming Astra. The contrary case rests on fresh reporting that release is imminent, safeguards already being deployed, and a structure that could permit broad access while restricting the most dangerous cyber functions. Immediate public availability remains likely with meaningful uncertainty, but another safety delay is the clear failure path.

Points to YES
Points to NO

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