Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket72¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES72¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 16

Forecast updated

Aug 20 forecast

Softer inflation and activity have strengthened the FOMC majority’s case for patience, so an unchanged September policy rate is likely.

The FOMC held rates in July despite elevated inflation, and subsequent inflation, employment and spending reports have generally softened. That gives the majority room to wait and assess whether tariff, energy and technology-related pressures fade. An increase remains a meaningful risk because inflation is above target, three officials already favored tightening, and many others indicated they could support it if disinflation stalls.

Points to YES

Cooling consumer inflation gives officials more time to observe persistent price pressures, making an immediate September increase less necessary.
On August 12, July headline CPI inflation was reported at 3.4 percent, down from 3.5 percent in June, while core CPI eased to 2.5 percent from 2.6 percent.
A weaker labor market raises the cost of tightening and strengthens the case for leaving the target range unchanged.
Data available by August 19 showed that payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, while unemployment declined mainly because the labor force shrank.
The established voting majority favored holding rates even before the latest softer data, creating a high hurdle for enough officials to switch by September.
On July 29, the FOMC voted 9–3 to maintain the target range at 3.50–3.75 percent, with three dissenters favoring a quarter-point increase.

Points to NO

Persistent above-target inflation keeps an increase live because many officials have already indicated that stalled disinflation would require tighter policy.
Minutes released August 19 showed that many July meeting participants judged tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline.

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