Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 84.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 1, 2026?
October WTI is already above $84.99 amid renewed U.S.-Iran strikes and constrained Hormuz traffic, so an above-threshold September 1 settlement is likely.
October WTI is near $85.73, leaving only a modest cushion above $84.99. Recent U.S.-Iran strikes, a tanker hit and severely depressed Hormuz traffic support a disruption premium into the next settlement. However, WTI traded on both sides of the threshold on August 31, and recovering exports could restrain prices. With less than a day remaining, the current level and immediate disruption make an above-threshold settlement more likely, but a sharp move either way remains credible.
- October WTI has moved above the threshold immediately before the target session.On August 31, FT/LSEG showed WTI at $85.56 per barrel, above $84.99.
- Renewed U.S.-Iran military exchanges increase the immediate risk of supply disruption.On August 30, the United States struck Iranian military facilities, and the IRGC retaliated against two U.S. bases in Jordan.
- Severely constrained Hormuz traffic supports a near-term scarcity premium in crude prices.Commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was just under 10% of normal pre-war levels on August 27.
- Extreme intraday volatility leaves the narrow cushion vulnerable to a rapid reversal.WTI traded between $84.11 and $86.79 on August 31, crossing the $84.99 threshold in both directions.
- Partial recovery in Persian Gulf exports could unwind some of the disruption premium.On August 31, Goldman Sachs estimated Persian Gulf oil exports had recovered to around two-thirds of pre-war levels.
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