Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 90.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 4, 2026?
Recent closes above $90.99 show the threshold is within an ordinary intraday move, so a September 4 settlement above $90.99 is favored but far from guaranteed.
The latest settlement-basis price is $90.4307, only 0.62% below the threshold with 2.1 hours remaining. That leans against an above-threshold settlement now, but October WTI settled above $90.99 on September 2 and 3, while several September 4 reports also showed higher trading. The nearby threshold, recent swings across it, and severe Hormuz disruption make a rebound into the settlement window more likely than a finish below, though conflicting intraday readings and added Iraqi supply leave substantial uncertainty.
- October WTI has already demonstrated it can settle above the threshold in consecutive sessions.October WTI settled at $91.30 on September 3 after rising for a fourth consecutive session.
- Severely restricted Strait of Hormuz traffic continues to support a geopolitical risk premium in crude prices.Only four vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on September 1, less than 3% of the level before the February attacks on Iran.
- Above-threshold September 4 trading confirms that the required level remains within the day's active range.At 10:03 a.m. on September 4, October WTI traded at $91.85 per barrel.
- WTI currently sits below the required settlement threshold with little time remaining.On September 4, the settlement-basis price was $90.4307, leaving a 0.62% gap with 2.1 hours until settlement.
- Rising Iraqi exports provide replacement supply that can restrain further price gains.Iraq's crude exports increased to about 2.34 million barrels per day in August from about 1.35 million in July.
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