Will Bitcoin be at or above $81,000 on Sep 4?
Signal ended
Entry · NO60¢
PublishedSep 3
Sep 3 forecast
Repeated rejection near $81,000 and weakening spot demand leave little margin before settlement, so Bitcoin closing at or above $81,000 is unlikely.
The settlement-basis price has rallied to $80,604.30, just 0.49% below the strike, making an intraday crossing readily achievable. However, recent rallies above $80,000 have faded, apparent demand has weakened, and substantial supply sits near and above the threshold. Normal daily volatility keeps the upside path live, but the most likely outcome is a volatile test followed by settlement below $81,000.
Points to NO
- Bitcoin remains below the settlement threshold with limited time to establish a cushion.On September 3, settlement-basis Bitcoin was $80,604.30, 0.49% below $81,000, with less than two days remaining.
- Recent attempts to hold above $80,000 have met selling before Bitcoin could establish itself beyond the strike.On September 2, Bitcoin's August move above $80,000 was reported rejected at $81,240, with the price subsequently near $77,300.
- Weak apparent demand increases the risk that another threshold test fades.CryptoQuant data showed Bitcoin's apparent-demand indicator had turned negative again by September 3.
Points to YES
- The remaining gap is small relative to Bitcoin's recent daily trading range.On September 2, Bitcoin's average daily range was $2,272, enough to cross $81,000 from the upper-$77,000 area.
- Bitcoin's broader trend remains constructive despite recent short-term weakness.On September 3, Bitcoin remained above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages while its RSI was about 66.7.
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