Tulsa Golden Hurricane26vs.Navy Midshipmen won34

College footballFinal24h volume $252k

Market price

Oct 10 forecast

Navy: Q 65.3¢ · Market odds 57.5¢ at forecast

Home field. Navy has won seven straight home games.

Main caution: Navy's running game struggled in its last game.

Evidence and updates

Tulsa offense. Tulsa has struggled to convert third downs.

Second-half defense. Navy's defense has allowed only 17 second-half points through four games.

Q and odds rise. Q +6.0¢; odds +4.0¢ since the previous forecast, for Navy.

The research packet changed.

Snapshot: 2026-10-10T16:33:50.334411+00:00 · Quote: price_observations · 2026-10-10T16:32:41.960767+00:00.

The research provides context. The scorer did not use it to produce Q.

Ask Q: Whether Navy's listed questionable running backs and tight end are active, and whether Navy has settled on one quarterback for early-down and third-down work.

Home field

Navy had won seven consecutive home games entering the Tulsa matchup.
Navy was 11-1 at home since the beginning of the 2024 season.
The Tulsa game was Navy's first home game in 35 days after three consecutive road games.

Tulsa offense

Tulsa's success rate on passing downs was 18.1%, last nationally.
Tulsa converted 25% of its third downs entering the matchup.
On targets more than 10 yards downfield, Tulsa quarterback Baylor Hayes had completed seven of 26 attempts with one touchdown and one interception.

Second-half defense

Navy's defense had allowed 17 second-half points through four games, third fewest in the nation.
Navy had scored on all 10 of its red-zone opportunities, producing seven touchdowns and three field goals.

Main caution

Navy rushed for 110 yards against Air Force, ending a 19-game streak with at least 170 rushing yards.
Tulsa led the American Conference with 14 sacks through five games.
Tulsa had committed four turnovers and held a plus-six turnover margin through five games.

Points to Navy

Navy's home field has been close to automatic, and this is its first home game in more than a month after a three-game road stretch.
Entering this game Navy had won seven consecutive home games, was 11-1 at home since the start of the 2024 season, and was 15-3 at home under Brian Newberry.
Tulsa's offense is among the least efficient in the country on the downs that decide games, which limits how much pressure it can put on Navy's defense.
Through five games Tulsa converted 25% of its third downs and posted an 18.1% success rate on passing downs, last nationally, with quarterback Baylor Hayes completing seven of 26 throws beyond 10 yards.
Navy finishes drives and tightens up after halftime, which matters in a game expected to stay low-scoring.
Navy had scored on all 10 of its red-zone opportunities and its defense had allowed 17 second-half points through four games, third fewest in the nation.

Points to Tulsa

Navy's on-field results this season are the weakest part of its case: three straight losses, a stalled offense at Air Force, and an unsettled quarterback picture.
Navy lost 14-9 at Air Force on October 3, producing 253 total yards, converting one of 11 third downs, and rushing for 110 yards to end a 19-game streak of at least 170.
Tulsa's front seven creates negative plays and turnovers, the exact recipe for derailing a run-first offense that rarely throws.
Tulsa led the American Conference with 14 sacks through five games, had generated 10 takeaways, and held a plus-six turnover margin.

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