US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Ben Shelton

No price history available.

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Conviction at publication

Realized · held to resolution+85%$100 paper stake

Polymarket46¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO54¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 12

Forecast updatedSep 11

Shelton leads the head-to-head 3-1 and the adapter rates him stronger than the market does, so a Tiafoe win is unlikely.

Shelton has beaten Tiafoe in three of four meetings and the adapter rates him slightly stronger than the market does, at 0.780 blended against 0.725. Tiafoe's better 2026 record and the two extra nights of rest he has over Shelton keep this closer than the head-to-head suggests. The disagreement with the market is about five points, under the signal floor.

Points to NO

Shelton leads the head-to-head 3-1, including the 2023 US Open quarterfinal, and is ranked 9th to Tiafoe's 12th.
Shelton's win over Alcaraz ended a 17-match losing streak against top-three players and put him in his third major semifinal.

Points to YES

Shelton's quarterfinal ran four hours and 28 minutes and finished at 3:34 a.m.; he said he was tired, while Tiafoe finished Tuesday evening.
Tiafoe is 41-16 in 2026, on a five-match winning streak against top-10 opponents, and beat Shelton in five sets at the 2024 US Open.
Tiafoe came back from two sets and a break down to beat Michelsen in the quarterfinal.

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