Will Styvenson Valentim win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Conviction at publication

Realized · held to resolution+25%$100 paper stake

Polymarket

Sep 27 forecast

Valentim leads every recent combined-vote poll, so winning the most valid votes in Rio Grande do Norte is likely.

All recent combined-choice polls place Valentim first, while several also show commanding first-choice leads. He is therefore likely to win the most valid votes, with meaningful uncertainty because one late poll found a close first-choice race, his second-choice support is weaker, and many voters remain undecided.

Points to YES

Valentim holds a clear lead in combined Senate voting intentions in a major late poll.
The September 21–24 Quaest poll placed Valentim at 19% across both Senate choices, ahead of Zenaide Maia at 12% and all other candidates.
Valentim’s first-choice support is substantially stronger than his rivals’ in multiple late surveys.
The September 21–23 Exatus poll gave Valentim 43.57% of first-option intentions, versus 15.37% for Zenaide Maia and 10.77% for Samanda de Lula.
Another independent combined-choice measure also places Valentim first.
The September 21–23 Metadata/Grupo Dial poll recorded Valentim at 19.10% across two choices, ahead of Zenaide Maia at 15.62% and Samanda de Lula at 10.80%.

Points to NO

One late poll found Valentim’s first-choice lead too narrow to separate him clearly from two rivals.
The September 18–22 IP Sensus poll put Valentim at 20%, Samanda de Lula at 18%, and Zenaide Maia at 16%, all within its 2.83-point margin of error.
Valentim is less dominant when voters identify their second Senate choice.
The September 21–23 Exatus poll placed Zenaide Maia first in second-option preferences at 16.58%, while Valentim received 7.50%.
A large undecided bloc leaves room for substantial late movement.
In the September 21–24 Quaest spontaneous Senate question, 61% of respondents said they were undecided.

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