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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?

Realized · 7-day hold+18%$100 paper stake
Polymarket76¢ → 90¢
Our position · YES76¢ → 90¢
Signal endedAug 7
Forecast updatedAug 8
Jul 31 forecast

The ceasefire is probable to hold because Israel remains sidelined and Iran targets US assets, leaving little motive for direct strikes in 15 days.

The ceasefire between Israel and Iran has held since June, with Israel explicitly staying out of direct action and Iran directing its strikes at US targets. There is no evidence of direct strikes through July 30, and the remaining window is only 15 days. Both sides have strong reasons to avoid direct conflict: Israel is aligned with US strategy, and Iran is already engaged with US forces. While escalation is genuinely possible, the specific conditions for breaking this ceasefire—a direct air or missile strike—are unlikely in this short period. The forecast is probable continuation.

Points to YES
  • Israel has remained sidelined from direct strikes since an interim deal, with Netanyahu stating Israel will only respond if attacked and otherwise trusting US judgment.
    Evidence
  • Iran's military actions through July 30 are directed at US forces and assets in Jordan, Kuwait, and elsewhere—not at Israel directly.
    Evidence
  • The window is only 15 days (July 31 to Aug 15), which limits the time for strategic shifts, planning, and execution of a direct strike.
    Evidence
Points to NO
  • The packet lacks updates for Aug 1-15, creating an information gap about recent events that could have changed dynamics.
    Evidence
  • US-Iran conflict is intense and could escalate in ways that draw Israel in, either through miscalculation or deliberate expansion.
    Evidence

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