Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution−99%$100 paper stake

Polymarket42¢ → 1¢

Our position · YES42¢ → 1¢

Signal endedJul 23

Forecast updatedJul 21

Jul 16 forecast

Trump will very likely meet Netanyahu by July 24 because Netanyahu is traveling to Washington with a meeting widely expected around July 20.

Multiple credible reports (E2,E4,E5,E6) indicate Netanyahu will travel to the US this weekend and expects to meet Trump on Monday July 20 for strategic talks and a Tuesday memorial. E1 introduces meaningful uncertainty: a US official said no meeting has been scheduled. E3 and E7 further note plans are subject to change and timing is uncertain. Nevertheless, the resolution window extends to July 24, giving room for a one- or two-day delay. The direct current evidence—actual travel planning, high strategic stakes around Iran and Lebanon, and the physical presence of both leaders near Washington—outweighs the scheduling ambiguity. The main risk is a deliberate postponement or cancellation, or a downgrade to a virtual/phone call that fails P1/P2. Overall, I place 82% on qualification.

Points to YES

Travel reports and media expectations point to Netanyahu in Washington with a planned July 20 Trump meeting.
Evidence
Strategic context (Iran talks, Lebanon, Graham memorial attendance) creates strong incentive for face-to-face interaction.
Evidence

Points to NO

US official states no meeting scheduled; Israeli sources say plans are subject to change and timing uncertain.
Evidence
Prior similar-market cases include scheduling failures and venue delays, reminding that travel alone does not guarantee a meeting.
Evidence

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