Will Bitcoin be at or above $76,750 on Sep 3?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+61%$100 paper stake

Kalshi62¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES62¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 3

Forecast updated

Sep 2 forecast

Bitcoin is trading just above $76,750 with less than a day remaining, so a September 3 settlement at or above the threshold is favored.

Bitcoin is about $349 above the threshold, and recent readings and the prior daily close also finished higher. However, repeated intraday moves below $76,750, weakening spot demand, and adverse macroeconomic pressure show that the cushion is fragile. The short remaining window favors the side already marginally ahead, but two-way volatility leaves a sharp reversal plausible.

Points to YES

A benchmark-aligned CME CF live reading stood above the $76,750 threshold.
On September 2, the CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index was $77,180.98, with an intraday range of $76,986.85 to $77,411.03.
Bitcoin entered the final day after closing above the threshold.
Bitcoin closed September 1 at $77,468.

Points to NO

Recent selling repeatedly pushed Bitcoin below the settlement threshold.
On September 2, Bitcoin reached an intraday low of $76,229 before buyers rebounded the price.
Spot buying power weakened as Bitcoin traded near the threshold.
On September 2, Bitcoin's Apparent Demand indicator turned negative while the price fluctuated around $77,000 and dipped to $76,400.
Institutional fund flows added near-term selling pressure.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $236.5 million on September 1, led primarily by BlackRock's IBIT.

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