Will Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?

Pre-election polls consistently placed Jay Collins a clear second behind Byron Donalds, so Collins finishing second is highly likely despite unreported official totals.

The Florida Republican gubernatorial primary was held on August 18, 2026, but as of the latest available information no official second-place result has been published and live results pages show zero reported precincts. Despite this reporting gap, the available evidence strongly favors Jay Collins. Multiple pre-election polls, including a JMI survey from August 6 and a DDHQ average, placed Collins firmly in second behind Byron Donalds, with margins of roughly 18% to 16.6% versus much lower support for other challengers like Fishback and Renner. Some social predictions disagreed, naming Fishback as the runner-up, but these appear speculative rather than data-driven. News reports list the competing candidates without contradicting the polling hierarchy. Because primary outcomes in low-turnout or late-reporting races can still diverge from polls, there is meaningful but limited uncertainty. Still, the consistency of Collins's second-place positioning across surveys makes his runner-up finish the dominant expectation. The resolution will depend on official vote totals, and if they remain unknown past the year-end cutoff the market could resolve differently, but within the active window the trajectory points clearly toward Collins occupying second place.