Will Bitcoin be at or above $80,250 on Sep 5?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+52%$100 paper stake

Kalshi34¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO66¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 5

Forecast updated

Sep 5 forecast

Bitcoin remains below $80,250 after repeated failed rebounds with only hours remaining, so a September 5 settlement at or above the threshold is unlikely.

The latest benchmark reading was below $80,000, and repeated failures above $81,000 indicate that sellers have contained recent rebounds. Bitcoin is also near enough to the $80,250 threshold for a sudden move to change the result, especially in thin trading, but the short remaining window and weak spot demand make an above-threshold settlement unlikely.

Points to NO

The latest reference-rate reading remained below the required settlement threshold with little time left.
At 15:00 GMT on September 5, the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate was $79,714.83, below $80,250.
Repeated rejection from the $81,000–$82,000 area shows that rebounds have struggled to hold.
At 6:20 a.m. UTC on September 5, Bitcoin was near $79,627 after failing in the $81,000–$82,000 area.
Recent upside appears driven more by short covering than durable new demand.
On September 5, CryptoQuant reported that short covering supplied most of the recent rally's momentum while apparent spot demand contracted.

Points to YES

Bitcoin remains close enough to $80,250 for an ordinary intraday move to cross the threshold.
On September 5, the current settlement-basis price was about $80,008, roughly 0.30% below the strike.
Strong recent fund inflows provide underlying buying support despite the latest price reversal.
U.S. spot Bitcoin products accounted for more than 80% of $1.20 billion in combined Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF inflows during the trading week ending September 4.

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