Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

KPRF is highly likely to take second place, as WCIOM polling consistently places it ahead of LDPR and New People with projected seats near 66-77.

Russia’s parliamentary election is set for September 18-20, 2026, and resolution depends solely on State Duma seats. The 2021 result established KPRF as the clear runner-up with 57 seats behind United Russia’s 324, giving it a durable reference point. In the current cycle, KPRF held its June congress, approved its program and lists, and named Zyuganov to lead the federal list, signaling organizational continuity with a stated minimum goal of matching its 2021 seat count. Polling is split but directionally supportive: WCIOM’s July 19 and July 26 surveys place KPRF second in vote share and in projected seats (77 and 66 respectively), ahead of New People (68 and 64) and LDPR (61 and 53). By contrast, FOM’s July surveys show KPRF tied with LDPR around 14-15.5% with seat projections of 70 versus 69 or 80 versus 80, and a May Levada poll had LDPR slightly ahead at 16% to KPRF’s 15%, while a July 5 WCIOM poll briefly showed New People at 14.4% ahead of KPRF’s 12.9%. These contradictions create real uncertainty, but they are mostly older or tied outcomes rather than sustained KPRF deficits. Analysts also note the Kremlin is reducing guaranteed single-member districts for systemic opposition from about 20 in 2021 to roughly 10-13, which tightens the race for second but does not erase KPRF’s list-based advantage. Given the election is only weeks away, the near-term dynamics are stable, and the preponderance of seat projections and structural position point to KPRF retaining second place. Therefore the outcome is highly likely, though not absolute, because a close vote-margin tie or an unexpected coalition shift could reorder the ranking.