Will Bitcoin be at or above $77,500 on Sep 1?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi68¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES68¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 1

Forecast updated

Sep 1 forecast

The settlement-basis price is about $78,012 with only hours remaining, so Bitcoin finishing at or above $77,500 is likely.

Bitcoin enters the final hours roughly $512 above the threshold, making an above-$77,500 settlement more likely than a finish below it. The cushion remains fragile because Bitcoin recently traded below the threshold and leveraged positioning leaves it vulnerable to abrupt swings. Strong August gains offer support, but the final result depends much more on near-term volatility than on the broader monthly trend.

Points to YES

Bitcoin remains above the settlement threshold late in the window.
On September 1, Bitcoin traded at $77,904, keeping it $404 above the $77,500 threshold.
Strong recent momentum provides some support above the threshold.
Bitcoin gained 24% in August 2026, its strongest month since November 2024.

Points to NO

Bitcoin's intraday cushion has narrowed to only a few hundred dollars.
Bitcoin's reported September 1 low was $77,773.75, less than $300 above the threshold.
A sub-threshold trade has already occurred within the preceding day.
During the 24 hours preceding the Asian morning of September 1, Bitcoin traded as low as roughly $77,200.
Elevated futures leverage increases the risk of a sudden late price swing.
On August 31, Glassnode said elevated futures leverage left Bitcoin participants sensitive to derivatives-driven price swings.

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