Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31?
Realized · 7-day hold+66%$100 paper stake
Polymarket60¢ → 99¢
Our position · YES60¢ → 99¢
Signal endedAug 31
Forecast updatedAug 24
Aug 24 forecast
Only about $11 million more is needed to clear the lower bound, while slowing grosses should keep the upper bound distant, so a target-range finish is likely.
The Odyssey entered the final week just under $540 million. Recent earnings and projected slowing make the comparatively close lower boundary reachable while leaving the upper boundary sufficiently distant, though an unusually strong hold could still create an overshoot risk.
Points to YES
- The current total is already close enough to the lower boundary that an ordinary late-run week should carry the film into the target range.On August 23, The Numbers listed a cumulative domestic gross of $539.061 million, leaving about $11 million needed to reach $550 million.
- The latest weekend pace provides ample room to clear the lower boundary even after allowing for normal weekday declines.From August 21 through August 23, the film earned $5.09 million, $8.05 million, and $6.36 million per day, reaching $539.06 million.
- A projected weekly take near $20 million would place the film comfortably above $550 million but still below $570 million by the deadline.On August 23, late-run tracking anticipated a further weekly decline from roughly $36.6 million toward the $20 million range.
Points to NO
- The sixth weekend remained strong enough that an unexpectedly durable hold could narrow the buffer below the upper boundary.The film earned $19.5 million during August 21–23, its sixth domestic weekend.
- Higher end-of-run projections preserve some risk that late earnings remain stronger than the near-term slowdown implies, potentially carrying the total beyond the target range.On August 22, reported final domestic projections extended from $580 million to $600 million, although near-term tracking pointed toward slowing and an end-game total near $575 million.
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