Will AfD win 38-41 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+39%$100 paper stake

Polymarket72¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES72¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 7

Forecast updated

Aug 29 forecast

Several late polling-based allocations place AfD near the middle of the target band, so an AfD total of 38–41 seats is highly likely.

Several recent measures translate AfD’s support into 38 or 39 seats, repeatedly placing it inside the target range. The newest Forschungsgruppe Wahlen calculation instead gives AfD 37 seats, showing that a modest late shift or different allocation could produce a miss. Threshold uncertainty and possible overhang or compensatory mandates add risk, but the weight of late evidence remains centered within the band, making 38–41 seats highly likely.

Points to YES

The current polling trend converts to 39 AfD seats, putting the central estimate inside the target range and raising the chance that the final allocation lands there.
On 29 August, the weighted polling trend put AfD at 41.8% and translated that support into 39 seats in an 83-seat chamber.
The final Infratest dimap poll independently produces 39 AfD seats, reinforcing the path to an in-range result rather than relying on one polling series.
On 25 August, Infratest dimap measured AfD at 42% and displayed a theoretical allocation of 39 seats.
An earlier INSA estimate also produced 39 seats, showing that an in-range allocation has persisted across pollsters and dates rather than appearing only briefly.
In fieldwork ending 6 August, INSA measured AfD at 42% and assigned it 39 seats in an 83-seat composition.

Points to NO

The newest individual poll translates to 37 seats, creating a live path to a one-seat shortfall if its lower AfD showing persists through election day.
On 28 August, the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll page displayed a theoretical allocation of 37 AfD seats from its latest survey.
Parties near the entry threshold can materially alter AfD’s seat share, so small movements among the Greens, BSW or FDP could push a narrow seat outcome outside the band.
On 17 August, MDR reported that movements of only a few tenths around the five-percent threshold could decide party entry and materially change Landtag majorities.

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