Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 91.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 9, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+30%$100 paper stake

Kalshi77¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES77¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 9

Forecast updated

Sep 8 forecast

WTI is trading around $92.96 with little time remaining, so a September 9 settlement above $91.49 is likely, though meaningfully uncertain.

WTI is currently above the threshold, and severe shipping disruption, Saudi facility outages, and falling U.S. inventories support elevated prices. The cushion remains vulnerable because recent settlements were below $91.49, September 8 trading crossed both sides of the threshold, and progress on a Hormuz route could reduce the risk premium quickly. With little time remaining, an above-threshold settlement is likely, with meaningful uncertainty from exceptional intraday volatility.

Points to YES

WTI entered the final stretch above the required settlement level.
WTI traded at $93.73 per barrel at 10:55 BST on September 8, above the $91.49 threshold.
Reduced Middle Eastern oil shipments continue to support a substantial supply-risk premium.
On September 8, Middle Eastern oil shipments were roughly 11 million barrels per day, down from about 18 million before the conflict.
Fresh attacks have extended the threat to physical energy infrastructure.
Operations at some Saudi energy facilities were halted following Houthi attacks on September 8.

Points to NO

Recent official settlements show the threshold remains within easy reach on the downside.
October WTI settled at $91.48 per barrel on September 4, one cent below the resolution threshold.
Progress toward a workable Hormuz route could rapidly unwind part of the geopolitical premium.
Iran’s foreign minister said on September 8 that significant progress had been made on a Hormuz route.

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