Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 89.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 4, 2026?
The current settlement-basis reading is above $89.49 with only hours remaining, so an above-threshold September 4 settlement is highly likely.
At $90.191 per barrel, the current reading is above the $89.49 threshold, while recent October-contract quotes and settlements have mostly been higher still. Severe Hormuz disruption and falling U.S. crude inventories support the price premium. However, same-day reports below $90, increased Iraqi exports, and prospects for smoother shipping leave room for a sharp reversal before CME’s late-afternoon pricing window. Overall, an above-threshold settlement is highly likely.
- The October WTI contract traded well above the threshold hours before settlement.At 10:03 a.m. on September 4, the October WTI contract traded at $91.85 per barrel, up 0.60%.
- Severely restricted Hormuz traffic continues to support a geopolitical premium in crude prices.Only nine vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on September 2, versus about 135 vessels daily before the war.
- The previous settlement left WTI with a meaningful buffer above $89.49.The October WTI contract settled at $91.30 per barrel on September 3 after rising for four consecutive sessions.
- Conflicting same-day readings show that WTI has already traded close to the threshold.WTI traded below $90 during the Asian session on September 4.
- Rising Iraqi exports could partly replace disrupted Gulf supply and limit further price gains.Iraq’s crude exports rose to about 2.34 million barrels per day in August from about 1.35 million in July, with further increases expected in September.
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