Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+67%$100 paper stake

Polymarket60¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES60¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 21

Forecast updated

Aug 28 forecast

Die Linke leads several recent surveys and weighted trends, so winning the most Berlin seats is likely.

Die Linke holds first place in several recent surveys and aggregated trends, supported by sustained gains, stronger organization and a campaign focused on housing. Its advantage is not secure: CDU led one recent poll, several parties remain closely grouped and many voters are still open to switching. Because party second votes principally determine seats, even a small late change could alter which party finishes first.

Points to YES

Die Linke leads the latest weighted trend, which points directly toward the largest proportional seat allocation if that advantage persists.
On August 28, PolitPro put Die Linke on 20.6%, ahead of CDU on 18.8%, and projected 31 seats for Die Linke against 28 for CDU.
Multiple recent surveys independently place Die Linke first, making its lead more credible than a result driven by one pollster.
The Forsa survey fielded August 4–18 put Die Linke on 22%, four points ahead of CDU and AfD, with a simplified allocation of 34 seats against 27 for each rival.
Die Linke's expanding membership and intensive tenant-focused campaign strengthen its ability to mobilize supporters and protect its polling advantage.
On August 27, taz reported that Die Linke had doubled its membership within 18 months and was conducting extensive door-to-door campaigning centered on rents and housing socialization.

Points to NO

CDU remains close enough to overtake Die Linke, leaving the seat lead vulnerable to an ordinary polling miss or small late swing.
The INSA poll fielded August 7–13 placed CDU first on 20% and Die Linke second on 19%, with a 130-seat projection of 30 seats for CDU and 29 for Die Linke.
Large numbers of voters remain open to several parties, creating meaningful potential for late movement away from Die Linke.
On August 20, Ipsos reported that 52% of respondents could imagine supporting at least two parties and only about one-third were fixed on exactly one.

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