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Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution100%$100 paper stake
Polymarket44¢ 100¢
Our position · NO56¢
Signal endedJul 23
Forecast updatedJul 22
Jul 17 forecast

The Houthis are unlikely to successfully strike shipping by July 31 because coalition interceptions have consistently neutralized their attempts.

With Houthi forces reportedly awaiting orders, coalition interceptions consistently neutralizing attempts, and no unambiguous direct-impact or seizure confirmed through July 17, a… Whether Houthi leadership authorizes and executes an un-intercepted strike or boarding in the remaining 14 days despite current operational… Completed deployments near Bab el-Mandeb and prior July 13/16 targeting attempts demonstrate retained capability and intent Multinational interception effectiveness and analyst assessments indicate successful strikes remain unlikely

Points to NO
  • Multinational interception effectiveness and analyst assessments indicate successful strikes remain unlikely
    Evidence
Points to YES
  • Completed deployments near Bab el-Mandeb and prior July 13/16 targeting attempts demonstrate retained capability and intent
    Evidence

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