Will Bitcoin be at or above $79,500 on Sep 4?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi40¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO60¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 4

Forecast updated

Aug 30 forecast

Bitcoin remains below the strike after retreating from $80,000, so a $79,500-or-higher September 4 settlement is a meaningful underdog.

Bitcoin is near $78,103 and needs a 1.79% rise to reach $79,500, but recent momentum weakened after repeated moves above $80,000 quickly reversed. ETF outflows, firm inflation and bearish technical signals add pressure, although the recent range and constructive options positioning leave a credible path above the strike. A sub-$79,500 settlement is more likely.

Points to NO

Bitcoin remains below the settlement threshold despite a modest daily gain.
At 11:00 a.m. KST on August 30, Bitcoin traded at $78,054.52, below $79,500 after rising 0.54% from the previous day.
The latest breakout above $80,000 lost momentum quickly.
On August 30, Bitcoin was back in the $77,000–$78,000 zone three days after breaking $80,000, without another serious attempt at that level.
Institutional fund flows weakened after a strong buying streak.
On August 28, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $201.8 million in net outflows, ending nine consecutive trading sessions of inflows.

Points to YES

Bitcoin has recently demonstrated enough volatility to clear the strike.
Bitcoin's seven-day range through August 30 reached $81,281.93, comfortably above the $79,500 threshold.
Options positioning has become more supportive of further gains.
On August 28, Glassnode reported rebuilding options open interest, reduced demand for downside protection and notable call demand.

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