Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
Realized · 7-day hold+19%$100 paper stake
Polymarket44¢ → 34¢
Our position · NO56¢ → 66¢
Signal endedJul 6
Forecast updatedJul 17
Jun 29 forecast
María Corina Machado will very likely stay out of Venezuela through July 31 because withdrawn US logistical support leaves her facing prohibitive arrest risk.
Machado lacks US support and a valid passport, rendering physical entry highly risky amidst regime militarization. The aborted Curacao attempt demonstrates her operational constraints.
No factor breakdown on this forecast.
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