Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+79%$100 paper stake

Polymarket44¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO56¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 1

Forecast updated

Jun 29 forecast

María Corina Machado will very likely stay out of Venezuela through July 31 because withdrawn US logistical support leaves her facing prohibitive arrest risk.

Machado lacks US support and a valid passport, rendering physical entry highly risky amidst regime militarization. The aborted Curacao attempt demonstrates her operational constraints.

No factor breakdown on this forecast.

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