Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Realized · held to resolution+10%$100 paper stake
Polymarket18¢ → 10¢
Our position · NO82¢ → 100¢
Signal endedSep 5
Forecast updatedAug 8
Jul 12 forecast
Normal traffic is very unlikely by August 31 because a minimum 40-day demining timeline leaves too few days to restore 60 daily transit calls.
Active hostilities and physical mine clearance constraints consume the 50-day resolution window, mathematically preventing a return to normal or surge traffic levels.
Points to NO
- Demining timeline consumes entire remaining windowClearance requires 40-50 days minimum under cooperative conditions
- IRGC kinetic blockade actively enforcedIRGC hit M/V GFS Galaxy container ship, July 11 2026
- Pre-escalation peak well below 60 thresholdPortWatch 7DMA peaked at 32.14, July 5 2026
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