Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,750 on Aug 30?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+47%$100 paper stake

Kalshi32¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO68¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 30

Forecast updated

Aug 30 forecast

Bitcoin sits below the threshold after its rally was rejected and short-term momentum weakened, so a $78,750-or-higher settlement is unlikely.

The current settlement-basis price is about $78,469, only 0.36% below the threshold, so an ordinary intraday move could still produce a qualifying settlement. However, recent readings have remained below $78,750, the rally above $81,000 was rejected, and short-term technical momentum has weakened with only hours remaining. A settlement at or above $78,750 is therefore unlikely.

Points to NO

Bitcoin's latest observed trading range remained below the $78,750 threshold.
At 4:09 a.m. on August 30, Coinbase reported Bitcoin at $78,184.04, with a 24-hour high of $78,334.44.
Short-term momentum weakened after Bitcoin retreated from above $81,000.
On August 30, Bitcoin was in the $77,000–$78,000 zone after retreating from $81,240 and had fallen below its 50-period and 100-period moving averages on the four-hour chart.
The recent breakout above $81,000 was rejected rather than sustained.
On August 29, Bitcoin entered the weekend near $78,000 after its August 28 move above $81,000 was rejected.

Points to YES

The threshold is close enough for normal Bitcoin volatility to bridge the gap quickly.
On August 28, Bitcoin moved from $81,455 to $76,877 during the day after failing to hold $80,000.
Recent institutional spot demand provides some support despite the latest daily outflow.
As of August 28, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows for August remained positive by $3.3 billion despite Friday's $201.8 million net outflow.

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