Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,750 on Aug 30?
Signal ended
Entry · NO68¢
PublishedAug 30
Aug 30 forecast
Bitcoin sits below the threshold after its rally was rejected and short-term momentum weakened, so a $78,750-or-higher settlement is unlikely.
The current settlement-basis price is about $78,469, only 0.36% below the threshold, so an ordinary intraday move could still produce a qualifying settlement. However, recent readings have remained below $78,750, the rally above $81,000 was rejected, and short-term technical momentum has weakened with only hours remaining. A settlement at or above $78,750 is therefore unlikely but still live.
Points to NO
- Bitcoin's latest observed trading range remained below the $78,750 threshold.At 4:09 a.m. on August 30, Coinbase reported Bitcoin at $78,184.04, with a 24-hour high of $78,334.44.
- Short-term momentum weakened after Bitcoin retreated from above $81,000.On August 30, Bitcoin was in the $77,000–$78,000 zone after retreating from $81,240 and had fallen below its 50-period and 100-period moving averages on the four-hour chart.
- The recent breakout above $81,000 was rejected rather than sustained.On August 29, Bitcoin entered the weekend near $78,000 after its August 28 move above $81,000 was rejected.
Points to YES
- The threshold is close enough for normal Bitcoin volatility to bridge the gap quickly.On August 28, Bitcoin moved from $81,455 to $76,877 during the day after failing to hold $80,000.
- Recent institutional spot demand provides some support despite the latest daily outflow.As of August 28, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows for August remained positive by $3.3 billion despite Friday's $201.8 million net outflow.
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