Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
Realized · 7-day hold−96%$100 paper stake
Polymarket29¢ → 1¢
Our position · YES29¢ → 1¢
Signal endedAug 29
Forecast updatedAug 24
Aug 22 forecast
A strong fourth weekend would leave a manageable final-week gap, so reaching the domestic threshold by August 31 is genuinely close.
Recent daily grosses and fourth-weekend projections keep the threshold reachable, and several contemporaneous outlooks expect it to be crossed. But rapid weekly erosion, fewer theaters, premium-screen competition, and school reopenings leave the outcome genuinely close.
Points to YES
- The film has already banked most of the required gross, leaving a substantial but reachable amount for its fourth weekend and final eight days.On August 20, The Numbers reported a finalized daily gross of $5,468,937 and a cumulative domestic total of $815,901,026.
- Current fourth-weekend tracking would erase a large share of the remaining gap before the final week, preserving a narrow path above the threshold.On August 21, the film was tracking to earn $35 million to $40 million during its fourth weekend.
Points to NO
- Weekly declines near half indicate fast late-run erosion, increasing the risk that final-week grosses fall short of what the remaining gap requires.On August 20, The Numbers reported a $5,468,937 daily gross, down 51% from the previous week.
- Widespread school reopenings should suppress the final full week’s weekday attendance, narrowing the time available for stronger grosses.An August 16 analysis estimated that the share of U.S. students back in school would rise from 50% on August 17 to 70% by August 24.
- A smaller theater footprint reduces available capacity and visibility just as the film needs sustained late-run business.On August 21, the film entered its fourth frame in 4,006 theaters after losing 533 locations.
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