Iran full airspace closure by July 31?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+43%$100 paper stake

Polymarket30¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO70¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 1

Forecast updated

Jul 14 forecast

Iran is unlikely to fully close its airspace by July 31 because it kept the eastern Tehran flight region open even through a 140-target US strike wave.

Iran absorbed 140 US strikes on July 13-14 without closing the eastern FIR, proving its commitment to partial closures. A general closure requires an unlikely eastward expansion of the conflict.

Points to NO

Iran absorbed 140 US strikes without general closure, July 14
Eastern Tehran FIR maintained open above FL285, July 8
Evidence

Points to YES

US scheduled naval blockade against Iran, July 14
Iran fired ballistic missiles at US base, July 13

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