Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit $90 Week of August 31 2026?
Realized · held to resolution−99%$100 paper stake
Polymarket37¢ → 100¢
Our position · NO63¢ → 0¢
Signal endedSep 1
Forecast updatedSep 1
Aug 31 forecast
Repeated resistance near $87 leaves WTI needing another abrupt surge, so a $90 print this week is a meaningful underdog.
Renewed U.S.-Iran attacks have pushed WTI to around $87.4, leaving the threshold within reach during volatile trading. Yet repeated August failures near $87 and recovering Persian Gulf exports mean the rally probably needs a fresh supply shock rather than ordinary follow-through. A $90 print this week is a meaningful underdog, though abrupt Hormuz disruption could still produce it before Friday.
Points to NO
- WTI repeatedly failed near $87 during August, creating resistance below the $90 threshold.On August 31, WTI was reported to have reversed from an August ceiling around $87 on every attempt that month.
- Recovering Persian Gulf exports limit evidence of a physical shortage capable of driving WTI above $90.On August 31, Persian Gulf oil exports were assessed at around two-thirds of their pre-war level, with crude-price upside viewed as limited.
Points to YES
- Renewed direct U.S.-Iran attacks increase the risk of an abrupt oil-supply premium.On August 30, the United States attacked Iranian military facilities on Larak Island, and Iran retaliated against bases in Jordan.
- WTI has moved close enough to $90 for another conflict-driven jump to reach the threshold.On August 31, WTI rose to around $87.4 following renewed military escalation between the United States and Iran.
- Monday's strong futures gain shows that buyers are reacting forcefully to escalation headlines.October WTI futures closed August 31 up $2.36, or 2.83%, for the session.
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