Will Bitcoin be at or above $77,000 on Aug 29?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+25%$100 paper stake

Kalshi80¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES80¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 29

Forecast updated

Aug 29 forecast

The benchmark remains above the cutoff late in the window, so Bitcoin’s Aug. 29 price at or above $77,000 is likely.

Bitcoin is likely to clear the threshold. The benchmark and other current price feeds remain above $77,000, but the cushion is narrow, trading has already dipped below it, and recent selling shows that another sharp move could overturn the expected outcome.

Points to YES

The benchmark is still above $77,000 late in the window, giving the affirmative outcome a narrow but direct cushion against further declines.
On Aug. 29, 2026, the BRTI history showed $77,530.86, with the day’s reported low at $77,501.14.
A separate live price feed also remains above the threshold, indicating that the benchmark’s position is not an isolated reading.
At 12:45:40 UTC on Aug. 29, Bybit’s CoinGecko-sourced page showed Bitcoin at $77,618.
Visible bids around the threshold could absorb some selling and help keep Bitcoin from remaining below $77,000.
On Aug. 26, an order-book analysis identified about $636 million of bids from $75,500 to $77,800, including roughly 1,200 BTC at $77,000.

Points to NO

Bitcoin has already traded below the cutoff today, showing that an adverse move large enough to defeat the outcome is readily possible.
On Aug. 29, Bitcoin traded at $77,813 after touching about $76,845.
The latest reversal and weakening spot demand leave the narrow cushion vulnerable to another fast selloff before the relevant reading.
On Aug. 28, reported sell walls stood at $80,800–$83,000 while spot demand weakened and open interest rebuilt.

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