Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
Realized · held to resolution+56%$100 paper stake
Polymarket64¢ → 100¢
Our position · YES64¢ → 100¢
Signal endedAug 26
Forecast updatedAug 25
Aug 25 forecast
Graham entered the runoff with a clear first-round lead and powerful endorsements, so her winning the Republican nomination is likely.
Graham’s first-place primary finish, broad geographic support and endorsements from Trump, Tim Scott and Russell Fry give her the stronger path. Trump’s late rally and allied spending may help consolidate Fry voters. However, Graham’s national-security answer damaged her closing momentum, while scarce late polling and Norman’s Upstate strength leave meaningful uncertainty.
Points to YES
- Graham’s clear first-round advantage gives her more existing supporters to retain and a shorter path to a runoff majority.On August 11, Graham finished first in the special primary, ahead of Norman and third-place finisher Russell Fry.
- Trump’s intensive late support can consolidate Republican loyalists and former Fry voters behind Graham.Trump campaigned with Graham on August 21 and held a runoff-eve tele-rally for her on August 24.
- Russell Fry’s endorsement gives Graham an important route to the eliminated candidate’s sizable bloc, particularly around the Grand Strand.On August 24, Graham entered the runoff with endorsements from Trump, Tim Scott and third-place finisher Russell Fry.
Points to NO
- Graham’s national-security response damaged perceptions of her readiness and could drive undecided or low-propensity supporters toward Norman.On August 25, Republican sources said Graham’s victory looked increasingly doubtful after her August 18 debate remark, while an operative reported weakening support among low-propensity voters.
- Norman’s established Upstate strength and endorsements from former rivals give him a credible path through concentrated turnout and anti-Graham consolidation.On August 11, Norman won Greenville County and performed strongly across the Upstate, including Spartanburg and his home York County.
- Conflicting late surveys indicate that Graham’s initial advantage may have narrowed enough for a modest turnout shift to change the winner.A survey released August 24 showed the candidates tied, while a separate Norman-aligned survey showed Norman ahead; neutral public polling remained scarce.
Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.