Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in September 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Conviction at publication

Realized · held to resolution+20%$100 paper stake

Kalshi

Sep 30 forecast

A late-September estimate range lies entirely above 3.5% amid firm pipeline pressure, so year-ending September U.S. CPI inflation above 3.5% is highly likely.

August’s official 12-month CPI rate was 3.4%, and an early Cleveland Fed estimate reported by AllMind News pointed to about 3.3%, so the visible evidence is not uniformly supportive. However, a newer threshold-specific range lies entirely above 3.5%, while producer and import prices show continued upstream pressure. The later estimate and strengthening price pipeline outweigh the below-threshold August reading, making year-ending September CPI inflation above 3.5% highly likely.

Points to YES

Late-September tracking places the year-over-year CPI rate clearly above the threshold.
On September 30, Other Side Asset Management reported that Hedgeye’s September headline CPI scenarios ranged from 3.63% to 3.85%.
Producer-price pressure remains strong enough to threaten further consumer-price pass-through.
The August Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.4% during the month and 5.4% over the preceding year.
Rapidly rising import costs add pressure across fuel and nonfuel consumer categories.
In August, import prices were 7.0% above a year earlier, while nonfuel import prices were 5.5% higher.

Points to NO

The latest official year-over-year CPI reading remains below the required threshold.
The all-items CPI rose 3.4% over the 12 months ending August 2026, unchanged from July’s rate.
An early September estimate points to inflation remaining below 3.5%.
On September 4, AllMind News reported that the Cleveland Fed’s early nowcast indicated September headline CPI of about 3.3%.
Subdued core inflation limits evidence that price pressure is broad and persistent.
Core CPI rose 2.4% over the 12 months ending August 2026, down from 2.5% in July.

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