Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Conviction at publication

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket

Sep 12 forecast

Lula leads almost every recent first-round poll, so a second-place finish for him is unlikely.

Most recent first-round polls place Lula ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro, often by a modest but persistent margin. One poll showing Flávio ahead and recent movement toward him keep a reversal plausible, particularly as scandals affect both campaigns. Yet Lula’s repeated leads, firm voter support, and fresh allegations against Flávio make Lula’s second-place finish unlikely.

Points to NO

Lula holds first place across nearly all recent national polling.
A Datafolha poll conducted September 8–10 placed Lula first and Flávio Bolsonaro second in every reported first-round scenario.
Most Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro supporters appear firmly committed, limiting room for a late reversal.
In Datafolha’s September 1–3 poll, 81% of Lula voters and 80% of Flávio Bolsonaro voters said they were fully decided.
The newly public investigation involving Flávio Bolsonaro could obstruct his attempt to overtake Lula.
A corruption and money-laundering investigation involving Flávio Bolsonaro became public on September 11, following police raids the previous day.

Points to YES

A late poll shows that Flávio Bolsonaro can finish ahead of Lula.
A Gerp first-round poll released September 10 placed Flávio Bolsonaro at 36.6% and Lula at 34.4%.
Scandal-related pressure on Lula creates a credible path for Flávio Bolsonaro to pass him.
On September 11, Bloomberg reported that the Banco Master scandal had weighed on Lula’s campaign because of perceived ties to a justice implicated in the controversy.

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