Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?
Realized · 7-day hold+42%$100 paper stake
Polymarket40¢ → 15¢
Our position · NO60¢ → 85¢
Signal endedJul 21
Forecast updatedAug 8
Jul 14 forecast
Iran is unlikely to announce a definitive MOU withdrawal by August 15 because it wants a conditional suspension that pins the deal's failure on the United States.
Iran conditional MOU suspension maintained. Strict resolution criteria excluding ambiguous pauses. Formal withdrawal carrying negative strategic value.
Points to NO
- Iran explicitly maintains conditional compliance strategyIran continues commitment-for-commitment MOU strategy, July 13
- Iran diplomatic framing assigns MOU collapse blame to USIranian officials rejected accusations of MOU violations, July 13
- Resolution criteria exclude conditional withdrawalsResolution criteria explicitly exclude conditional withdrawals and ambiguous pauses
Points to YES
- Escalating US-Iran hostilities strain MOU viabilityUS military operations against Iran formally resumed, July 10
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