Will Bitcoin be at or above $77,750 on Aug 31?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+67%$100 paper stake

Kalshi60¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES60¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 31

Forecast updated

Aug 31 forecast

Bitcoin is now above the threshold with only hours remaining, so a $77,750-or-higher settlement is likely.

Bitcoin is around $78,584 on the settlement basis, leaving a cushion of roughly $834 with only hours remaining. The evidence is mixed: the latest exact sourced exchange print was below the threshold, while both the supplied current price and earlier same-day highs were above it. Strong spot ETF inflows provide support, but the rapid retreat from above $81,000 and the geopolitical shock show that the cushion can disappear quickly. A $77,750-or-higher settlement is therefore likely.

Points to YES

Bitcoin currently has a modest settlement-basis cushion above the $77,750 threshold.
On August 31, the supplied settlement-basis price was $78,583.8181, about 1.06% above the threshold.
Bitcoin has demonstrated the ability to trade above the threshold during the current session.
Through 4:30 AM UTC on August 31, Coinbase Pro recorded a session high of $78,169.56.
Persistent spot ETF inflows indicate underlying demand rather than a purely leveraged rally.
By August 31, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had recorded eight consecutive net-inflow sessions totaling around $2.8 billion.

Points to NO

The latest exact sourced exchange print was already below the threshold.
At 4:30 AM UTC on August 31, Bitcoin traded at $77,518.89 on Coinbase Pro.
Bitcoin has recently moved several thousand dollars within days and remains exposed to geopolitical selling.
Bitcoin fell from above $81,000 on August 28 to below $77,000 over the weekend, then retreated toward $77,000 after a U.S. strike on an Iranian launch site.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.