Will Bitcoin be at or above $77,750 on Aug 31?
Bitcoin is now above the threshold with only hours remaining, so a $77,750-or-higher settlement is likely.
Bitcoin is around $78,584 on the settlement basis, leaving a cushion of roughly $834 with only hours remaining. The evidence is mixed: the latest exact sourced exchange print was below the threshold, while both the supplied current price and earlier same-day highs were above it. Strong spot ETF inflows provide support, but the rapid retreat from above $81,000 and the geopolitical shock show that the cushion can disappear quickly. A $77,750-or-higher settlement is therefore likely, with meaningful uncertainty.
- Bitcoin currently has a modest settlement-basis cushion above the $77,750 threshold.On August 31, the supplied settlement-basis price was $78,583.8181, about 1.06% above the threshold.
- Bitcoin has demonstrated the ability to trade above the threshold during the current session.Through 4:30 AM UTC on August 31, Coinbase Pro recorded a session high of $78,169.56.
- Persistent spot ETF inflows indicate underlying demand rather than a purely leveraged rally.By August 31, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had recorded eight consecutive net-inflow sessions totaling around $2.8 billion.
- The latest exact sourced exchange print was already below the threshold.At 4:30 AM UTC on August 31, Bitcoin traded at $77,518.89 on Coinbase Pro.
- Bitcoin has recently moved several thousand dollars within days and remains exposed to geopolitical selling.Bitcoin fell from above $81,000 on August 28 to below $77,000 over the weekend, then retreated toward $77,000 after a U.S. strike on an Iranian launch site.
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