Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31?
Realized · held to resolution+28%$100 paper stake
Polymarket78¢ → 100¢
Our position · YES78¢ → 100¢
Signal endedAug 31
Forecast updatedAug 24
Only a modest final-window gross is needed after a strong sixth-weekend hold, so an August 31 domestic total within the target band is highly likely.
The latest resolution-source total sits just below the target band. Recent weekday grosses make entry highly likely, while theater losses and normal late-run erosion should restrain the remaining haul. The principal danger is overshoot because the sixth weekend declined only modestly and relied heavily on IMAX.
Points to YES
- The film is already close to the lower edge, so ordinary late-run business should carry it into the band before the deadline.On August 23, The Numbers listed a cumulative domestic gross of $539,269,630 after 38 days.
- Recent weekday grosses make failure to reach the lower edge difficult even if the film continues losing momentum.From August 17 through August 20, the film earned between $3.28 million and $4.02 million daily and added about $14.5 million domestically.
- Shrinking theater availability should slow the final stretch and help keep the cumulative total below the upper edge.On August 21, The Numbers reported that the film was playing in 3,091 theaters, down 126 from the previous weekend.
Points to NO
- The unusually shallow sixth-weekend decline creates the main risk that sustained demand pushes the total beyond the band.For August 21–23, The Numbers listed a $19,709,080 weekend, down only 17% from the prior weekend.
- Heavy premium-format demand could sustain elevated grosses if those screens remain available through the deadline.On August 23, Deadline reported that IMAX supplied $10 million, or 52%, of the film’s sixth-weekend domestic gross.
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