Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
Realized · 7-day hold+43%$100 paper stake
Polymarket36¢ → 9¢
Our position · NO64¢ → 91¢
Signal endedJul 20
Forecast updatedJul 21
Jul 13 forecast
Daily Strait of Hormuz transits will very likely stay under 40 through July 31, because Iran has formally closed the strait amid unprecedented escalation.
Direct observation of early-window traffic caps the maximum at 31, while subsequent kinetic escalation and AIS-dark evasion ensure transit counts remain firmly suppressed below 40.
Points to NO
- July 12 escalation crashed transit volumeKpler tracking recorded 14 commercial vessel transits on July 12.
- July 11 traffic hit 24 vesselsAnadolu recorded 24 commercial vessel transits on July 11.
- War-risk premiums strictly block entryWar-risk premiums reached eight times pre-crisis levels, July 13.
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