Will Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?

Pre-election polls placed Collins clearly second behind Donalds with Fishback trailing, and no credible reported results contradict that ordering, so Collins finishing second is highly likely.

The Florida Republican gubernatorial primary took place on August 18, 2026. Pre-election polling consistently showed Donalds leading by roughly 30 to 40 points, with Collins in second at about 10 to 18 percent, and Fishback and Renner trailing well behind. The available live results pages initially showed zero votes and zero percent of precincts reporting, so official confirmation was not present in the packet. However, the candidate field and endorsements positioned Donalds as the clear winner, leaving Collins as the principal challenger. Conflicting unofficial social forecasts suggested Fishback could be second, but these were not supported by survey data or official returns. Given the resolution rules rank candidates by valid votes with alphabetical tiebreakers, and given Collins's consistent pre-election positioning well above the rest of the field besides Donalds, the most probable path is that final certified results or credible reporting place Collins second. There is some near-term risk from delayed reporting or an unexpected vote distribution, but the overall evidence points strongly toward Collins occupying second place.