Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,000 on Aug 29?

Signal ended

Entry · NO86¢

PublishedAug 29

Aug 29 forecast

A sharp policy-driven selloff left Bitcoin below the cutoff with little recovery time, so Bitcoin clearing $78,000 on August 29 is a long shot.

Bitcoin entered August 29 below the cutoff after retreating sharply from above $81,000. Rising Treasury yields, a stronger dollar and extensive long liquidations reinforced the decline, while repeated resistance overhead limits recovery prospects. Sustained ETF inflows provide some buying support, but the remaining window is too short for that support to make a threshold recovery more than a long shot.

Points to NO

Bitcoin began August 29 below the cutoff with strong downward momentum, leaving little time for a durable recovery above $78,000.
At 2:55 a.m. on August 29, Bitcoin was reported at $77,417, down 3.5% over 24 hours after retreating from an intraday high of $81,148.
The policy backdrop turned less supportive for risk assets, making an immediate Bitcoin rebound harder to sustain.
On August 28, the two-year Treasury yield rose 7.84 basis points and the U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.36% after Kevin Warsh emphasized persistent inflation and avoided committing to a September policy decision.
A wave of forced long selling confirms that the decline was broad enough to damage bullish momentum and could continue weighing on recovery attempts.
On August 28, roughly $490 million of crypto positions were liquidated, with nearly three-quarters coming from long positions.

Points to YES

Persistent institutional inflows provide a source of underlying demand that could help Bitcoin rebound despite the selloff.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $242.3 million of net inflows on August 27, their ninth consecutive inflow day, with August inflows exceeding $3 billion.

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