Will Bitcoin be at or above $79,000 on Aug 28?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi46¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES46¢ → 0¢

Signal endedAug 28

Forecast updated

Aug 25 forecast

Strong fund inflows and recent momentum keep the threshold within easy reach, so Bitcoin at or above $79,000 on August 28 is favored.

Bitcoin is only slightly below the threshold after trading well above it earlier on August 25. Strong fund inflows and limited readily traded supply favor renewed buying, but overbought readings, repeated resistance near $80,000 and leverage-driven volatility leave substantial downside risk.

Points to YES

The threshold remains within ordinary short-term trading range, making a recovery above it plausible before August 28.
At 20:00:08 on August 25, major U.S. dollar order books quoted Bitcoin between roughly $78,817 and $78,906, only modestly below $79,000.
Large spot-fund inflows can sustain buying pressure after forced short covering fades, increasing the chance of a finish above the threshold.
U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin funds received a net $1.92 billion in the week before August 25 and another $337 million on August 25.
Strong recent momentum shows buyers can quickly carry Bitcoin through $79,000, supporting another upward move before the deadline.
Bitcoin reached $81,257 on August 25, its highest level since May 15, after gaining 23% in the seven days through August 23.

Points to NO

Overbought conditions and nearby resistance increase the risk that profit-taking pushes Bitcoin farther below the threshold.
On August 25, Bitcoin's relative-strength reading was near 83 as the price approached the May 6 high of $82,850.
Tentative U.S. spot demand makes the rally more vulnerable once short-covering demand subsides.
The Coinbase Bitcoin premium returned to negative territory on August 25 after turning positive briefly on August 24 for the first time in 98 days.
Scheduled macroeconomic and corporate events could trigger a sharp risk-asset move before the benchmark is set, widening the range of possible outcomes.
U.S. inflation data and Nvidia earnings were scheduled for August 26, with a Federal Reserve chair speech scheduled for August 28 during the Jackson Hole symposium.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.