Will CDU win less than 8% of all valid second votes?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket30¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO70¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 21

Forecast updated

Aug 25 forecast

Recent state polling keeps CDU near 10%, so a CDU second-vote share below 8% is unlikely.

The latest state poll and the broader polling trend both place CDU above the cutoff, with no recent downward movement sufficient to make a sub-8% finish the leading outcome. The party’s long decline and ordinary polling uncertainty leave the downside live, but CDU would probably need either renewed erosion or an unfavorable polling miss to fall below the threshold.

Points to NO

The weighted state polling trend remains comfortably above the cutoff, making an above-8% election result more likely unless CDU loses further support.
As of August 25, PolitPro’s weighted Mecklenburg-Vorpommern trend placed CDU at 9.8%, compared with 8% required for this outcome.
The latest direct survey showed no decline since June, reducing evidence that CDU is currently sliding toward the threshold.
An INSA survey conducted August 4–11 placed CDU at 10%, unchanged from the preceding June survey.

Points to YES

CDU’s prolonged state-level decline has brought it close enough to the cutoff that another modest loss could produce a sub-8% finish.
Election-history data show CDU falling from 23.0% in 2011 to 19.0% in 2016 and 13.3% in 2021.
Current polling uncertainty spans the threshold, leaving room for CDU’s actual second-vote share to underperform its measured support.
The August INSA survey reported a maximum sampling tolerance of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points around its 10% CDU reading.

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