Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 84.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 1, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+33%$100 paper stake

Kalshi75¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES75¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 1

Forecast updated

Aug 31 forecast

WTI is at $86.08 with little time remaining, so an October-contract settlement above $84.49 on September 1 is likely.

Settlement-basis WTI is $86.08, placing it 1.84% above the threshold with roughly a day remaining. Renewed U.S.-Iran strikes and retaliation have lifted crude, while restricted Strait of Hormuz traffic and tight inventories provide additional support. Against that, October WTI settled at $83.40 on August 28 after a steep weekly decline, and recovering Gulf exports could quickly erode the conflict premium. The current cushion and short window make an above-threshold settlement likely, but recent swings leave meaningful uncertainty.

Points to YES

WTI currently has a modest cushion above the settlement threshold.
On August 31, settlement-basis WTI stood at $86.0766, compared with the $84.49 threshold.
Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities have restored upward pressure on crude prices.
On August 31, oil rose after renewed U.S. strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation, with Brent exceeding $90 per barrel.
Strait of Hormuz crude flows remain heavily constrained despite reports of partial recovery.
On August 28, satellite imagery and vessel tracking indicated Strait crude flows of 3.5 million–3.7 million barrels per day, well below official claims.

Points to NO

The most recent published settlement was below the threshold after a sharp weekly decline.
October WTI settled at $83.40 on August 28 after losing $3.66, or 4.20%, during the week.
Recovering Persian Gulf exports could continue eroding crude's disruption premium.
On August 28, Persian Gulf oil exports were estimated at 15 million–16 million barrels per day, about two-thirds of prewar levels.

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