Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 91.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 8, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+39%$100 paper stake

Kalshi72¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES72¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 8

Forecast updated

Sep 7 forecast

WTI is already above the threshold amid severe export disruption, so an October-contract settlement above $91.49 on September 8 is likely.

October WTI is currently above $91.49, while restricted Hormuz traffic, vessel attacks, and unchanged OPEC+ output support near-term prices. The cushion is narrow, however: the contract settled just below the threshold on September 4 and traded below $90 during September 7. With sharp moves possible in either direction, a finish above $91.49 is likely.

Points to YES

October WTI entered the final day above $91.49, providing a modest settlement cushion.
WTI traded at $92.55 per barrel at 18:15 BST on September 7.
Exceptionally low Strait of Hormuz traffic continues to constrain Middle Eastern oil flows.
An average of 10 commodity ships per day crossed the strait during the 10 days through September 6, the lowest rate since May.
OPEC+ has not scheduled an immediate production increase that could relieve tight supply.
The seven participating OPEC+ countries kept October required production at September levels on September 6.

Points to NO

The latest completed settlement showed how little separates the contract from a NO outcome.
NYMEX October 2026 WTI settled at $91.48 per barrel on September 4.
Large intraday declines remain plausible despite the supportive supply backdrop.
WTI traded at $89.74 per barrel during the European session on September 7.
Weak Chinese import demand limits the support provided by disrupted supply.
China's August seaborne crude imports were 7.14 million barrels per day and were described as weaker than expected.

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